By Stephen Youtzy
Most of you remember November 2, 2010 vividly. That was the date when conservatism won. This movement was not just on the national level. The conservative movement was witnessed in everything from the 63 seat pickup in the House of Representatives to local elections. Are you ready for round 2?
Mark November 6, 2012 on your calendar right now! This will be the sequel to November 2nd 2010. While Republicans had massive pickups in the lower chamber of Congress in 2010, this upcoming election will yield fantastic results for the upper chamber of congress. Let’s break down the Senate elections.
Democrats have 23 seats up for re-election (technically 21, but 2 Independents caucus with the Democrats) and the GOP has 10 seats up. From a very logical standpoint, Republicans are poised for a big win.
Real Clear Politics has a great article that you can read here that explains in a little more detail about the Senate race. In that article, they discuss PVI, which shows how much a district leans to one political party or another. A PVI score of R+5 would mean a Republican would be expected to win 5% more votes than the national average. D+5 would be the exact opposite.
“Much will depend on the overall environment here. In 2010, the GOP won three of four Senate seats in Republican PVI states, won half of the seats that were D+1 or D+2, and picked off a D+8 seat in Illinois. But for self-inflicted wounds in Delaware, Nevada and Colorado, and a timely Democratic retirement in Connecticut, they might have gone much deeper into blue territory.
This time around, a similar performance would yield even greater GOP gains, because the playing field is tilted more heavily in their favor. Democrats hold eight seats that are Republican-leaning, and another four that are D+2 or better; at a 2010 rate, even including short-sighted primary decisions, that would result in a GOP pickup of nine or 10 seats.”
The GOP only needs to pick up 4 seats to gain majority in the Senate. A pickup of 10 seats would give the Republicans a commanding 57-43 lead in the Senate. I realize that it is a long way out, but Democrats have 20 seats up for re-election in 2014, while the GOP only has 13. In less than 3 years, the Republicans could have control of the House, super-majority in the Senate, and a Republican sitting President.
Without YOU, none of this will be possible. This is going to require a grassroots movement unlike any other. Let Conservatism be heard and echoed from coast to coast as we take back our country!